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Regional Racing on the all-weather tracks around the country has turned out to be a bigger hit than expected. Many owners, trainers and jockeys have praised this new form of racing which caters for 'low quality' horses. But never mind about the connections of the under achieving horses. What is in it for punters? Are regional races worth playing in? The following stats were derived from the first ten regional racing meetings this year. First Three in Betting 72% Avg SP of Winner 5.0-1 Avg Tote of Winner £6.55 Placed LTO 29% Male/Female Ratio 2.14 Course Winner Ratio 1.57 First Three in Betting 69% Avg SP of Winner 6.2-1 Avg Tote of Winner £8.37 Placed LTO 45% Male/Female Ratio 1.68 Course Winner Ratio 1.55 The figures above show that fancied runners are doing well with regional racing. The winner was from within the first three of the betting 72% of the time, and the average price of the winner is 1.2 less than ordinary racing. Analysing the position in the betting further reveals that favourites are quite profitable for backing. Backing all favourites makes a loss of about 10% on the all weather, but so far with regional racing, the favourite has returned a profit of 4.8%. If you group all the more fancied runners together you will see that punters are having a profitable time backing those at the top of the market. This has put to rest the negative comments that regional racing will be full of cheating horses winning at big prices. This has not happened as the fancied runners are doing what they are fancied to do - win. It is difficult to say if this good run for fancied runners will continue. Punters may finally latch on that a 'race horse amongst donkeys' is actually a good thing betting wise, but for now they seem to be following the notion that low quality races are synonymous with inside info gambles who win at big prices and are thus creating a 'favourite / longshot bias'. Either that or the bookies have got it hopelessly wrong and are being over generous with the market leaders. They too could have fallen into the trap that they should be wary of big prices going in with this class of racing. The most significant stat is the Male to Female ratio. This shows the ratio of winners who were male to winners who were female. With regional racing the ratio is currently running at 2.14 in favour of males, whilst with ordinary racing the figure is 1.68. This puts to rest another great myth about all weather racing - that fillies are weak on the sand because they are usually of lower class than males. Regional races are for horses rated 45 or less and in some races 35 or less. You can not get any lower class than that so it is difficult to see how females are generally 'outclassed' by their male rivals. Mares have recorded a strike rate of more than double that of fillies, and the impact value is a bit more respectable, but still nowhere near males. There could be a seasonal reason why fillies have under performed so far in regional racing. Remember, in January all horses became one year older. A 3yo was only a 2yo a few weeks ago so there could be an age / gender bias. A good way to check this is to analyse the gender performance of ordinary racing during the same period. In ordinary all weather races fillies have actually fared better than in regional racing, so what this could be indicating is that there is an age bias with regional racing. If a young horse finds itself in regional racing then clearly it is a very poor performer, but older horses who are running in this class of racing could be old timers who have had ability, but have dropped down the handicap ratings over the years. The fact that they have shown winning ability in the past means that they could win again in this grade, whilst a young horse who has not won a race and is in this grade so early in its career, is quite unlikely to win. Again, we can check this by examining the performance of 3yo's against older horses for both types of racing. 3yo's in regional races have performed under par against older horses whilst 3yo's in ordinary racing have performed well. This is indicated by the I.V. The figure of 0.97 for ordinary races shows that they are just about winning their fair share of races. Ranking each runner in the race by the amount of winnings the horse has won shows that horses within the third lowest group (Low) are poor bets. The highest earning horse in the race (Top) is not profitable for backing. The A/E figure is only 0.63. This shows that punters are overbetting the horse with the most earnings. Apprentices seem to be doing quite well. The bigger the apprentice allowance, the more likely an apprentice is to win. The reason why claiming apprentices are doing so well is probably due to the fact that they are not competing against the top jockeys. Many times over the past few weeks there have been two all weather meetings on the same day. One regional, one ordinary. It was no surprise to see the top jockeys riding at the ordinary venue chasing the better prize money, leaving the not so talented jockeys to ride at the regional meeting. This is a similar effect to when there is a top class festival meeting and a low grade meeting running on the same day. The low grade meeting will consist of lessor competitive jockeys and thus any allowance which can be claimed can make a big difference. Summary There is no doubt that there is a demand for regional racing. It is popular with connections of horses, and early indications show it to be popular with punters. So far, the stats show that favourite backers are having a profitable time. This may continue for some time as punters will always believe that low quality racing is associated with surprise outsider winners. If you want to profit from regional racing the following information may be of use: Concentrate on the market leaders. It is rare for the winner to be priced in double figures. Avoid fillies and mares. Avoid 3yo's racing against older runners. Horses ranked in the lowest third on earnings rarely win. The highest ranked horse on earnings is overbet. Apprentices are doing well but they may find it tough if the top jockeys decide to race at the meeting. To monitor the stats for regional racing use the Flatstats Race Stats database. Choose 'H to H' in the Class section, select all race types and click Go. Article source: http://www.flatstats.co.uk
Article Source: http://www.horseracingarticles.co.uk
Scott Daniels is the co-founder of SBK Media which publishes several horse racing web sites under the SkyBlueKangaroo.com banner.
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